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Posts archive for: July, 2008
  • Pretty as a Milkmaid

    What does this phrase indicate?

    Some possibilities include

    a) It doesn't indicate anything, milkmaids were no prettier than other girls

    b) It is ironic, milkmaids were in fact notoriously plain

    c) It was coined by someone who had a thing for milkmaids, or a crush onn a milkmaid, and was entirely subjective

    d) Milkmaids wre indeed noticeably better looking than other girls

    Assumming for the sake of argument we accept d)as the explanation, why should this be?

    Again there are many possibilities to investigate, but some include

    a) diary farms were established in areas known for their good looking women

    b) dairy farmers only hired pretty girls as milkmaids, it was a clear case of discrimination against plain applicants

    c) only pretty girls applied to become milkmaids

    d) girls becoming milkmaids had much the same distribution of prettiness and plainness as the general population, but being a milkmaid made them better looking

    e) girls becoming milkmaids had much the same distribution of prettiness and plainness as the general population, but kept their looks while those of the girls who were not milkmaids declined

    f) some complicated mixture of the all of the above, plus perhaps further factors as well

    In fact, e), though a bit of a strange one, is close to the truth. Milkmaids caught cowpox, a fairly mild disease, which protected them from the ravages of smallpox, a related, but much more virulent disease. From this Edward Jenner, though not the first to experiment with the concept, developed and popularised vaccination.

  • Some Comments on Currency Devaluation

    Edward I reigned from 1272 to 1307, and Robert the Bruce was King of Scotland from 1306 to 1329. Adfam Smith wrote 'The Wealth of Nations' in the 1770's, so we are talking about devaluation over a period of about 470 years.
    To maintain purchasing parity for a currency devalued to 1/3 of its original value over 470 years, like the pound sterling, would require compound interest at a rate of about 0.24%.
    In the case of the Scottish pound, reduced to 1/36thof its value over that period, a compound interest rate of 0.77% is necessary just to break even.

    This puts Gordon Brown's inflation target of two to three percent, widely described as low, in a historical context. This target rate has been exceeded on several occasions, but of course, inflation hasn't come in below the target range.

    2 to 3 per cent is a historically low inflation rate only if you think that history began in the 1970's.

    2 per cent over 470 years would leave the poor GBP (Gordon Broon Poond) at 1/11,000 th of it's original value. 3 percent to less than 1 millionth of it's original worth. At the moment the inflation rate is expected top reach 4 per cent, which would lead to the pound being less than 1 / 100 millionth of its value over 470 years.

    So the klepto chancellor's legendary proodence had led to a situation when the pound is devaluing at a rate which would be 33 million times worse than the combined efforts of some notably greedy tyrants and spendthrift wastrals over the centuries.

  • Adam Smith on Devaluation of Currencies

    The English pound sterling, in the time of Edward I. contained a pound,
    Tower weight, of silver of a known fineness. The Tower pound seems to
    have been something more than the Roman pound, and something less than the
    Troyes pound. This last was not introduced into the mint of England till
    the 18th of Henry the VIII. The French livre contained, in the time of Charlemagne, a pound, Troyes weight, of silver of a known fineness. The fair of Troyes in
    Champaign was at that time frequented by all the nations of Europe,
    and the weights and measures of so famous a market were generally
    known and esteemed. The Scots money pound contained, from the time of
    Alexander the First to that of Robert Bruce, a pound of silver of the
    same weight and fineness with the English pound sterling. English,
    French, and Scots pennies, too, contained all of them originally a
    real penny-weight of silver, the twentieth part of an ounce, and the
    two hundred-and-fortieth part of a pound. The shilling, too, seems
    originally to have been the denomination of a weight. "When wheat is
    at twelve shillings the quarter," says an ancient statute of Henry
    III. "then wastel bread of a farthing shall weigh eleven shillings and
    fourpence". The proportion, however, between the shilling, and either
    the penny on the one hand, or the pound on the other, seems not to
    have been so constant and uniform as that between the penny and the
    pound. During the first race of the kings of France, the French sou or
    shilling appears upon different occasions to have contained five,
    twelve, twenty, and forty pennies. Among the ancient Saxons, a
    shilling appears at one time to have contained only five pennies, and
    it is not improbable that it may have been as variable among them as
    among their neighbours, the ancient Franks. From the time of
    Charlemagne among the French, and from that of William the Conqueror
    among the English, the proportion between the pound, the shilling, and
    the penny, seems to have been uniformly the same as at present, though
    the value of each has been very different; for in every country of the
    world, I believe, the avarice and injustice of princes and sovereign
    states, abusing the confidence of their subjects, have by degrees
    diminished the real quantity of metal, which had been originally
    contained in their coins. The Roman as, in the latter ages of the
    republic, was reduced to the twenty-fourth part of its original value,
    and, instead of weighing a pound, came to weigh only half an ounce.
    The English pound and penny contain at present about a third only; the
    Scots pound and penny about a thirty-sixth; and the French pound and
    penny about a sixty-sixth part of their original value. By means of
    those operations, the princes and sovereign states which performed
    them were enabled, in appearance, to pay their debts and fulfil their
    engagements with a smaller quantity of silver than would otherwise
    have been requisite. It was indeed in appearance only; for their
    creditors were really defrauded of a part of what was due to them. All
    other debtors in the state were allowed the same privilege, and might
    pay with the same nominal sum of the new and debased coin whatever
    they had borrowed in the old. Such operations, therefore, have always
    proved favourable to the debtor, and ruinous to the creditor, and have
    sometimes produced a greater and more universal revolution in the
    fortunes of private persons, than could have been occasioned by a very
    great public calamity.

    Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nations

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